Alex Freeman is Better Than You Think
Why Advanced Stats show Freeman is ready for the big time.
MLS Young Player of the Year. MLS Best XI. Then, to cap off his season, a 2 goal hero in a 5-1 demolition of an uncharacteristically poor Uruguay.
At this point, USMNT fans aren’t surprised anymore. Alex Freeman has become a mainstay, with 13 caps this calendar year. He’s broken out so big this year that he’s garnering interest from Champions League sides:
Yet, somehow, Freeman’s excellence in MLS this year remains under-appreciated.
Record-Setting 2025
To explain just how good Freeman has been this year in MLS, we’ll go into some advanced soccer stats. Goals Added Above-Average (G+ AA) is soccer’s version of WAR — each player is graded against the average player at their position in their league using some unit representing value. In soccer, that’s goals (more specifically, goal differential).
Take a look at MLS’s 2025 leaders in G+ AA, as calculated by ASA’s algorithms1:
Freeman, cumulatively over the course of the season, racked up the 4th most G+ AA behind only Messi (undoubtedly the greatest MLS season of all time), Denis Bouanga, and Sam Surridge. Noticeably, most of his value comes from offensive contributions unexpected of a right back (the Offensive G+ AA column).
How exactly does he generate this “offensive value”? Often, like this:
Freeman excels at a bunch of things, but he’s especially great at two - carrying the ball into dangerous positions, and receiving the ball in dangerous positions.
To be more precise, we can see Freeman’s value broken down by traits and subtraits on Paul Harvey‘s new Tableau dashboard. His outstanding stats are Carries Towards Goal, Final Third Take Ons, and Receptions in Danger Zones. He’s not a great passer or shooter, but he’s not detracting value in those areas, either.
Likewise, he’s in the second and third standard deviations in similar areas in his FBRef scouting report — Progressive Carries (carrying the ball a substantial distance closer to goal), Successful Take-Ons (dribbling past a player), and Progressive Passes Received (receiving a pass that puts your team substantially closer to goal).
I’ve tried to formulate an argument for why the numbers might be overestimating him, but I can’t. Here’s some attempts:
Contention: Freeman’s G+ AA gets a boost because he’s making offensive contributions similar to an attacker, but the “above-average” piece rates him against defenders, giving him an unfair baseline.
Verdict: Unfounded — taking away the “AA” part, Freeman’s 6.8 G+ (not above-average) still ranks 21st out of all players.
Contention: As an offensive-minded defender, he has more opportunities for G+ than his counterparts, but his defense is lacking.
Verdict: Totally off-base — his defensive G+ AA of 1.6 ranks 13th overall.
Any way you slice the numbers, Freeman is really good. In fact, going back as far as ASA’s G+ stats are available (2013), this was the highest G+ AA ever by an American in MLS2.
Journey through Next Pro
The real question on my mind this year about Freeman has been this:
How does 20 year old dude, who has been in Orlando’s system since the pandemic, take half a decade to get a game if he’s that good? Did he suck for years before something just *clicked*?
The answer, of course, is no. Freeman has been good. He just wasn’t showing it in MLS. Here’s how he ranked among MLS Next Pro players last year in G+ AA:
Obviously being on this list wasn’t some guarantee that Freeman was going to become some world-beater, but the only guys his age produced far less G+ AA — Makhanya, Westfield, and Sofo. Given two of them were pivotal players for the Shield-winning Union while Sofo himself played 1,500 minutes for RBNY, Freeman becoming an MLS success makes sense.
I’m not criticizing how Orlando handled him. Freeman has clearly turned out well, and maybe an extra year of stability in the minors allowed for rounding some edges that otherwise would remain raw. Simply, the stats above point to a player that isn’t some one-season wonder. Freeman is good, and he’s getting better all the time.
Into the Great Unknown
Freeman’s ascent to the summit of American MLS production combined with steady performances for the USMNT had landed him in the World Cup ‘26 roster conversation. Then, this happened:
He’s now firmly entrenched himself in a starting XI conversation amongst peers excelling in the top 5 leagues in Europe. So, where should he go?
To find comparisons, let’s rely again on G+ AA. There aren’t any good comparisons out of MLS at fullback who were this good this young shy of Alphonso Davies, so let’s expand the pool. In the past 5 years, here are the guys to eclipse 5 G+ AA before going somewhere new:
Freeman’s 6.5 G+ AA this year fits right in, and he’s the youngest (21) of all of them. With Cucho and Thiago Almada kicking it in La Liga after the latter’s recent switch to Atleti, Freeman’s recent links to Villarreal make sense. I, however, am partial to Germany for what they’ve done for our players. Our top 4 modern American-made players have been German-finished (Pulisic, McKennie, Richards, Adams). Let’s stick with what works and make it 5.
Let’s say, for the sake of argument, Freeman is sold for full price this winter. Here’s the top-end of what Americans have been sold for from MLS3:
For reference, Almada went for $21MM and Cucho for $16MM. If Freeman’s production and potential are fully valued and he doesn’t leave on a free next winter, he should be going near that range. Adding in that he’s already as big of a contributor the NT as Pepi (if not larger), $10MM would be a bargain.
Sticking with the Bundesliga, who could even afford that for a fullback? It’s not a ton of clubs. Given their transfer histories, I’d guess only Bayern, Dortmund, Leverkusen, Leipzig, Frankfurt, Stuttgart, Wolfsburg, Hoffenheim, and Gladbach.
Bayern is a bridge too far, and of course he shouldn’t go to Gladbach to avoid yank-on-yank crime. At the moment, for the best opportunity to get a starting role, I’d recommend Hoffenheim, where not only will he come well-recommended by Chris Richards but his main competition for playing time is 33-year-old Vladimir Coufal.
Of course, nothing is guaranteed in Europe. Yet Freeman's dominance in MLS and steady progress with the USMNT have demonstrated he is operating at a high plane. The debate is no longer if he will go, but when he will go, and for how much. Whether he makes the leap in the coming transfer window or after the World Cup, his job remains the same: to show the world that his statistical prowess will translate to a player ready to lead the USMNT—and a Champions League-caliber club—into the next era.
All data in these charts is courteously of American Soccer Analysis, as well as Paul Harvey‘s tableau using said data.
The next highest is 2025 Brian Gutierrez’s 5.9, who in a seemingly terrible piece of business was just sold for a measly $5 million, followed by Donovan and Dax, with 5.3 in ‘14 and ‘15, respectively.
Transfer fees are hard to confirm, so this is a combo of press releases and guesswork.